Foreign Ministry correspondent
Hours of talks in Saudi Arabia ended on Tuesday with a joint statement between the United States, Ukraine, for a 30 -day US ceasefire in the war with Russia.
Trump administration officials believe that this is a major breakthrough towards the goals of the commander’s foreign policy, who carried out a promise to end the war.
For Ukraine, the joint advertisement is a decisive postponement of President Vodimir Zellinski after a humiliating attack in the Oval Office two weeks ago by Trump and Vice President JD Vance.
For Moscow, it turns responsibility to them, while the war itself intensifies.
But so far only one side of the war – which depends on Americans – subscribe. The suggestion is only eight paragraphs, with little details that exceed the desire to move forward quickly.
Does the ceasefire make it reasonable? And if this is the case, can the war be ended after Russia’s invasion of three years ago in a fair and sustainable manner, and on the conditions that keep the region and the world safe?
statement: “Ukraine has expressed its willingness to accept the American proposal with an immediate confirmation age for 30 days, which can extend by the mutual agreement between the parties, which is subject to acceptance and coinciding by the Russian Federation. The United States will continue to Russia that Russian is the key to achieving peace.”
analysis: The keyword here is “instant”, which does not leave any doubt: Trump wants to retreat now. However, his urgency often led to fears in Europe.
Many fear that the desired result will accelerate without practicing terms first in military pressure on Moscow as a gas power and can lead to the exploitation of the truce.
They argue that it enables the power of the occupation.
Fear is ultimately Ukraine to effective surrender. The theory is that Russia – the largest and most overcrowded power and the most self -acquisition – can use a truce without creating concessions first to unite its forces, and to clarify the negotiation and waiting process to find out what is happening politically for Trump during his term while he was taking over everything he seized; Even then, try to take more land, build on her current profession and may use a fracture in the Western Alliance to threaten more Europe.
The process of negotiating the conditions before the ceasefire of conflict can be important to ensure that the parties convert the current military threats into meaningful strategic gains.
Zelinski previously tried to persuade the Americans that Russian President Vladimir Putin could not be trusted, as it is clear from the fact that he broke Europe -backed Minsk Conventions after the seizure of Ukrainian lands in 2014.
Trump rejects these concerns, saying that there will be security for Ukraine, but without saying how it will be guaranteed. He said that Putin will be deterred while in a difficult position with “no choice”, but to conclude a deal for reasons “I just know it.”
Rubio said on Tuesday that the American delegation was taking place with the Ukrainians at a permanent end of the war, including “the type of guarantees they will get for their security and prosperity in the long run,” but they did not clarify again.
statement: “The United States will immediately raise the temporary suspension of intelligence participation and the resumption of security assistance to Ukraine.”
analysis: This is the great victory for Zelensky in this agreement and believes that American weapons supplies are delivered at a rate of about $ 2 billion (1.5 billion pounds)-restored a month.
It is important, that Washington will again share intelligence data and satellite images with Kyiv, which helps it target Russian positions. The White House said that it had suspended this aid because it felt that Zelinski was not “committed” to Trump’s peace plan.
The Ukrainian leader tried to express his fears based on some of the above reasons when he was expelled from the Oval Office. Its reservations are likely to be allocated while the agreement is welcomed in this form – a necessary price to pay to restore US security assistance.
statement: “Both delegations agreed to naming their negotiating teams and immediately starting negotiations towards a permanent peace stipulating the long term in Ukraine. The United States has committed to discussing these specific proposals with representatives from Russia. The Ukrainian delegation emphasized that European partners will participate in the peace process.”
analysis: This paragraph is confusing because it is unclear whether it refers to negotiations between Ukraine and the United States on creating any security guarantees for Ukraine, or if it indicates negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to permanently end the war once the ceasefire.
If this is the first, it seems that it indicates that Washington and Kiev will deliver any decisions on how to make a backup copy of Ukraine’s security and deter Russian violations on the armistice, and the United States will then discuss with Moscow.
But all this is far from the type of security guarantee that Zelinski finally wanted, which is NATO membership, which Trump said will not happen – a long -term privilege for Moscow’s demands.
The paragraph also contains a mysterious and invisible signal to the idea of European peacekeeping forces, which was developed by the United Kingdom and France, although the line is due to the Ukrainian delegation only.
It is worth noting that the United States does not seem to put its name in this part after Moscow has categorically rejected the idea.
statement: “… The heads of countries agreed to conclude as soon as possible, a comprehensive agreement to develop critical metal resources in Ukraine to expand the economy of Ukraine and ensure the prosperity and security of Ukraine in the long term.”
analysis: This was the agreement that was not signed after Zelinski was asked to leave the White House last month.
The United States will give a future share in some state -owned metal deposits in Ukraine, as well as oil and gas revenues.
Trump believes that it is an effective security guarantee for Ukraine, on the pretext that it will deter the Russian invasion because American companies will be on the ground.
Opponents point out that this is meaningless because the American economic presence in Ukraine did not deter Putin in 2014 or 2022.
statement: “The Ukrainian delegation repeated the gratitude of the strong Ukrainian people of President Trump …”
analysis: This is a major line that may help explain the rehabilitation of Xielinki in the eyes of the White House.
Vans had ignited him in the Oval Office for not thanked Trump, although the Ukrainian leader thanked dozens of the United States for his military support.
Now Trump has an official Ukrainian, thank you, for a piece of paper aimed at making peace.
